While the Cypriot government is reaffirming its goal of joining the European Schengen area and thus becoming the 30th member state of the border-free zone, critical voices are increasing behind the scenes. Diplomats from various EU member states are increasingly expressing doubts as to whether the island's Schengen accession is actually realistic under the current political and technical conditions.

Several European diplomats, who spoke anonymously to the Cyprus Mail newspaper, expressed significant reservations about Cyprus' progress. In her opinion, the process has increasingly developed from a purely technical assessment to a political matter in recent years.

Some observers see in particular the strong role of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. According to several diplomats, the Commission has been run much more centralised since it took office in 2019 than under previous Commission presidents such as Jean-Claude Juncker or José Manuel Barroso.

According to the report, there is still a view in parts of Europe that full Schengen membership for Cyprus would be closely linked to a solution to the Cyprus question in the long term.

The biggest obstacle is still the so-called Green Line, which separates the Republic of Cyprus and the northern part of the island, which is controlled by Turkey.

Since this line is not considered the external border of the European Union under international law, there are particular challenges in the application of the future digital Entry/Exit System (EES) of the Schengen area.

Critics fear the following scenario:

This could lead to problems for later entries into other Schengen states, because the person in question would continue to be listed as "entered" in the system.

According to some diplomats, this could sooner or later lead to the EU pushing for full control at the crossings along the Green Line.

It is precisely this scenario that many observers consider to be particularly problematic.

Full application of the Schengen border system at the crossings between North and South Cyprus would significantly restrict freedom of movement. Critics warn that this could effectively create a "hard border" from today's transitions.

In the view of some diplomats, such a step could even favor a permanent division of the island in the long term and strengthen efforts for a two-state solution.

In order to meet the requirements for accession, the Cypriot government is working with an Austrian consulting firm. Among others, the former Austrian diplomat Martin Kramer is said to be involved in the evaluation of technical progress.

Austria's election is considered strategically important. In the past, Vienna had long expressed reservations about Romania and Bulgaria joining Schengen. Observers therefore suspect that Nicosia hopes to be able to convince other skeptical member states by supporting Austria.

According to diplomats in Nicosia, many Schengen member states are said to continue to be cautious. At the same time, however, it is pointed out that the assessments of the embassies do not necessarily reflect the political will of the respective capitals.

Smaller or geographically more distant member states in particular could ultimately join the general consensus if there is no major resistance.

Various alternatives are already being discussed in diplomatic circles.

For example, a kind of upstream Schengen control could be set up at Cypriot ports and airports. Comparable models already exist between Great Britain and France, for example in the port of Dover or at St. Pancras station in London.

A stronger deployment of the European border protection agency Frontex is also mentioned as a possible solution. This would allow travellers to complete Schengen controls before departure or crossing without the need for additional border installations along the Green Line.

The Government of the Republic of Cyprus continues to pursue the goal of completing the technical requirements for Schengen accession by 2026. These include, among other things:

However, final accession requires the unanimous consent of all Schengen member states.

Conclusion

The discussion about Cyprus' Schengen accession shows that this is not just a technical issue. In addition to security aspects, geopolitical, diplomatic and historical factors play an important role.

While the Cypriot government remains optimistic and points to progress, numerous diplomats continue to see unresolved problems – especially in connection with the Green Line and the possible impact on the division of the island, which has already existed for decades.

Whether Cyprus will actually become a full member of the Schengen area in the foreseeable future or whether transitional and special solutions will initially be found will ultimately depend less on technical details than on political decisions within Europe.

Note: The assessments reproduced in the article are partly based on anonymous statements by European diplomats to the newspaper Cyprus Mail and represent their assessments. They do not necessarily reflect the official positions of the European Union or its Member States.


Author: Editorial Team
Source: Cyprus-Mail.com / European Union