Why more and more Germans are turning to the AfD – A sober look at causes, developments and risks
Why more and more Germans are turning to the AfD – A sober look at causes, developments and risks
Germany is in the midst of the biggest political and economic crisis of confidence since reunification. While the traditional parties are losing their support, support for the AfD is growing at a pace that surprises even long-time political observers. To understand why this shift is taking place, it is not enough to work with moral labels or political battle words. The decisive factor is the real developments that have been burdening Germany for years – economically, socially and geopolitically.
1. Economy under pressure: emigration, recession, energy crisis
For decades, Germany was considered the economic backbone of Europe. This foundation is crumbling:
- In 2023/2024, Germany will be the only major industrialized country with a shrinking economy.
- Energy prices continue to be among the highest in the world. The cause is a combination of the shutdown of secured power plant capacities, dependence on imported energy and regulatory burdens for companies.
- Industry is increasingly investing abroad.
The German car industry alone is relocating billion-dollar projects to China and the USA (Inflation Reduction Act). - Record number of corporate insolvencies, according to the Federal Statistical Office, the highest level in over 10 years.
- SMEs – traditionally the backbone of the country – report massive burdens due to bureaucracy, taxes, energy prices and a lack of planning security.
For many citizens, the impression arises of a country that is systematically weakening its own economic base. This feeling is a central driver of the political shift.
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2. Energy policy: A system is hitting the wall
The energy transition has ambitious goals – but its implementation creates enormous tensions:
- shutting down functioning nuclear power plants before reliable alternatives exist.
- Wind and solar energy alone do not stabilize the power grid – there is a lack of storage systems.
- Electricity prices for consumers and businesses are rising, while cheaper products produced abroad are becoming more competitive.
- Grid failures and load shedding are statistically increasing; Experts warn of structural instability.
Many citizens link these undesirable developments directly to political ideologies and Green dominance in key ministries. The AfD benefits from this because it is the only party to openly argue against this energy policy.
Societal overload and migration
Another driver of political change is the issue of migration – not as a moral issue, but as a practical burden:
- municipalities report overloads in accommodation, schools and social services.
- Security authorities are recording rising case numbers in certain violent and knife attacks, which increases fears.
- In surveys, more than 70% of Germans say that migration policy is "out of control".
- At the same time, every critical reference is often immediately moralized politically – a communication style that frustrates many people.
The AfD benefits here because it openly names this problem, while other parties have appeased for too long.
4. Media trust drops drastically Several
studies show a historic low point in trust in traditional media.
Reasons:
Reasons:
- Perception of ideologically biased reporting
- Tabooing of certain topics
- Lack of transparency in political campaigns and NGO funding
- Obvious misforecasts during the energy crisis, Corona, migration
People are looking for alternative information channels – podcasts, independent portals, YouTube, Telegram. The AfD is penetrating this vacuum.
5. International criticism: USA, think tanks and military strategists warn
The topic is usually hushed up, but there are official and semi-official analyses:
- Several US reports (including RAND Corporation, US Army War College Papers, CSIS analyses) point to a possible destabilization of Europe.
- Germany's massive economic weakness is considered a security risk for the EU.
- Behind closed doors, the US criticizes Germany's energy policy, the sluggish expansion of defense and the political self-blockade.
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A recurring point in the reports:
When Germany weakens, Europe weakens. And an unstable Europe increases the risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict.
When Germany weakens, Europe weakens. And an unstable Europe increases the risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict.
6. Ukraine war: Escalation instead of diplomacy
The war is a decisive geopolitical factor:
- Europe assumes most of the costs and risks
- Germany has lost its strategic gas and trade relations
- The conflict could – depending on the outcome – spread to NATO territory
- Escalation warnings from intelligence services and military analysts are piling
upMany citizens do not see a credible European peace strategy. The AfD benefits because it is the only major party to clearly criticize the current line.
7. Political blockades: firewall instead of solutions
The "firewall" rhetoric of the old parties – i.e. the categorical refusal of any cooperation with the AfD – is increasingly counterproductive:
- Citizens perceive it as undemocratic when 30-40% of voters in some regions are politically ignored .
- The firewall effectively prevents solutions, especially in East German municipalities, where there are no stable majorities without the AfD.
- The impression is growing that the political elite would rather accept stagnation than tackle real problems.
This dynamic is driving more voters to the AfD – out of protest or conviction.
Conclusion: The AfD is not the cause – it is the symptom
Anyone who wants to understand why the AfD is growing must realize:
It is not the AfD that creates the crisis – the crisis creates the success of the AfD.
The reasons lie in:
- structural economic decline
- Energy and industrial policy without realism
- Growing social overload
- Loss of trust in the media and government
- Geopolitical risks that overwhelm Europe
- Political blockade instead of joint problem solving
As long as these problems remain unsolved, the AfD will continue to grow – regardless of whether it is politically supported or rejected.
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Author: MFRedaktion
Sources: REUTERS / GOOGLE
